For more than two decades, gold has been consolidating within a huge Cup & Handle pattern. During that time, sentiment toward the yellow metal has been completely destroyed. Even as gold has traded above the $2,000 level for ten straight weeks, there isn't much noise being made about gold on social media and the financial channels. Indeed the next big run in gold is much closer than the majority of investors seem to believe.
Looking at the big picture monthly chart of gold, we see that it has now actually broken out of its Handle and is backtesting right at the psychologically important $2,000 level. The last psychologically important breakout came back in 2009 at $1,000, which was also a breakout from a large halfway flag that enabled gold to double in about two years. Should we be surprised that the measured move on the current Cup & Handle also projects gold to nearly double in price from here?
Taking a closer look at the Handle, we can also identify a broader rectangle consolidation pattern. Currently, only 4 points have been confirmed, as a trip to the lower rail around $1,680 would be needed to confirm Point 5. That there was a false breakdown after Point 4 (combined with a potentially successful Handle backtest) provides strong evidence that price may be ready to break to the upside of the rectangle this time. We are getting very close to that monumental monthly breakout above $2,070 - one that will likely lead to an impulsive run over the next few years to around that $4,000 level.
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